(Nairobi) – Kenya’s stock market has delivered remarkable returns in 2024, outpacing its African peers in dollar terms, according to data from the Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI). The Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) saw a 60% increase in returns over the first ten months of the year, a strong recovery after suffering a 43% loss in 2023. The MSCI index tracks the performance of ten African exchanges, and Kenya’s significant improvement in dollar returns is attributed to a stronger Kenyan shilling and rising blue-chip stock prices.
As of October, the MSCI index for Kenya rose by 332 points, reaching 885.02, up from 802.01 at the end of September. This increase reflects a 10.4% rise in October alone. Kenya’s performance is impressive compared to other African stock markets. Ivory Coast followed with a 33.4% increase, Mauritius with 31.5%, Senegal at 29.5%, and Zimbabwe at 25.1%. Other markets, including Morocco, South Africa, and Tunisia, showed more modest gains ranging from 7.3% to 15.4%.
The MSCI index tracks the performance of nine major Kenyan blue-chip stocks, including Safaricom, KCB Group, Equity Group, East African Breweries, Co-operative Bank, British American Tobacco (BAT), Diamond Trust Bank, KenGen, and Kenya Reinsurance. While most of these stocks have seen gains of over 17% since the start of the year, BAT and Kenya Re were the only exceptions, with their stock prices falling by 41.5% and 12.5%, respectively.
Despite gains in local currency, Nigeria and Egypt posted declines of 72.3% and 28.8%, respectively, due to weak currencies. This trend reflects the broader currency issues faced by many African nations, which has led to declines in the attractiveness of frontier and emerging markets like Kenya for foreign investors.
The Kenyan shilling has strengthened by 21% since January, which has supported the performance of the NSE. Other African currencies have been grappling with devaluations, creating a challenging environment for investment. Kenya, however, has managed to buck this trend, attracting attention from both local and foreign investors.
The NSE has had a bullish performance this year, marked by a 27.0% gain in the NSE All Share Index (NASI), which closed at 116.99 in its most recent trading session. The market capitalization of the NSE, which measures the total value of listed companies, has also increased by KSh 419 billion since the start of 2024, reaching KSh 1.83 trillion at the close of the last trading session.
This positive market performance has been supported by foreign investor interest. In August 2024, MSCI upgraded five Kenyan firms without any downgrades, signaling investor confidence in the country’s economic outlook. The upcoming MSCI review in November will determine if any adjustments will be made to Kenya’s position or its market weighting. However, analysts believe the continued performance of Kenya’s market and the strength of its currency will solidify its appeal to investors in the near term.
Table: Performance of Selected African Stock Markets – 2024
| Country | Index Return (October 2024) |
|---|---|
| Kenya | +60% |
| Ivory Coast | +33.4% |
| Mauritius | +31.5% |
| Senegal | +29.5% |
| Zimbabwe | +25.1% |
| Morocco | +15.4% |
| South Africa | +15.1% |
| Tunisia | +7.3% |
| Nigeria | -72.3% |
| Egypt | -28.8% |