(Kyiv) – A leading military expert has suggested Ukraine might consider developing nuclear weapons if denied NATO membership and pressured to cede territory to Russia, emphasizing that the country’s survival could take precedence over previous disarmament commitments.
Ukrainian military analyst Mykhailo Samus, head of the New Geopolitics Research Network, made these remarks during an interview with Espreso TV. He highlighted that Ukraine’s current geopolitical situation could necessitate a dramatic shift in its defense strategy if international support falters.
Ukraine, a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) since November 16, 1994, relinquished its inherited Soviet-era nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from nuclear powers. However, these guarantees have been undermined by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict that has persisted for nearly a decade.
Samus emphasized that NATO membership would negate the need for nuclear armament. “If Ukraine becomes a NATO ally or is invited to join NATO and does not stay in a gray zone in this turbulent world, then it does not need nuclear weapons,” he stated.
Conversely, he warned that Ukraine’s position could drastically change if it is denied NATO membership and forced into a “gray zone” between the Western alliance and Russia. Under such circumstances, he said, Ukraine would need to adopt extreme measures to safeguard its sovereignty and existence.
“If we are positioned as a buffer zone between NATO, the Western world, and Russia, we will need to take every possible measure. In this context, nuclear weapons would be one of those tools,” Samus said, noting that the development of nuclear weapons would then become a survival necessity.
Despite this stark warning, the expert stressed that Ukraine’s current focus remains on integrating into the Euro-Atlantic community. Samus expressed confidence that NATO values Ukraine as a potential member, particularly given Europe’s evolving strategic landscape and the push for greater European autonomy.
He underscored that nuclear weapons development is not currently part of Ukraine’s agenda but could emerge as a serious option if NATO integration proves unattainable and the country faces further existential threats.
Ukraine’s Key Nuclear History
| Timeline | Details |
|---|---|
| 1994 | Ukraine signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal. |
| Security Assurances | Promised protection from aggression by nuclear powers in exchange for disarmament. |
| 2014 | Russia annexes Crimea, violating security guarantees. |
| 2023 | Ongoing war with Russia raises questions about Ukraine’s defense strategy. |
Ukraine’s nuclear history reflects its commitment to peace, but geopolitical pressures may force the nation to reconsider its stance on self-defense in an increasingly volatile world.