(Nairobi) – Smartphone shipments to Kenya have dropped significantly for the first time in over five years, as rising fuel costs and political unrest reduce consumer spending on non-essential items.
Smartphone imports to Kenya saw a notable decline in the second and third quarters of 2024, marking a shift in the market. In the third quarter, Kenya received only 1.26 million new smartphones, a three percent drop from 1.297 million units in the second quarter. This follows a similar three percent decline in shipments during the April-June period, compared to 1.335 million units in the first quarter of 2024.
The decline in smartphone imports also represented a 10 percent decrease from the same period in 2023, where 1.4 million units were shipped to Kenya, marking the second consecutive year-on-year drop. The fall in shipments reflects the challenges faced by the economy, with analysts citing factors such as political instability and increasing fuel prices that have limited disposable income for many Kenyans.
Canalys, a global technology market analysis firm, attributes the slowdown in smartphone imports to the unrest during the June and July protests, which led to looting of smartphone shops and further dampened consumer confidence. These protests, coupled with rising fuel prices, have escalated the cost of living and reduced consumer spending on non-essential items, including smartphones.
Manish Pravinkumar, senior analyst for the Middle East and Africa at Canalys, pointed out that the surge in fuel prices not only raised transportation costs for smartphone distributors but also pushed up retail prices for the devices. “There has been a reduced consumer spending power,” Pravinkumar noted. “With the rising fuel prices, there has been a significantly increased cost of living, leaving consumers with less disposable income for non-essential purchases like smartphones.”
The protests themselves heightened market uncertainty, further affecting consumer confidence. The situation has made people more cautious about their spending, especially when it comes to items like smartphones.
In addition to the political unrest, vendors in Nairobi and other major towns may have also scaled back their inventory after the risk of looting became apparent during the protests, which could have contributed to the drop in shipments.
This trend is also reflected in data from the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA), which shows a 17 percent year-on-year decline in newly registered smartphones in the quarter ending June 2024. The number of newly registered devices dropped from 1.3 million in 2023 to 1.07 million in 2024.
In contrast to Kenya’s decline, the broader African smartphone market saw a modest growth of three percent in the third quarter of 2024. Egypt, one of the largest markets on the continent, experienced a significant 34 percent increase in smartphone shipments, while Nigeria saw a smaller one percent rise. However, some African markets, including Morocco and South Africa, recorded declines, with shipments falling by 24 percent and 10 percent, respectively, due to rising import taxes and fuel prices.
While most smartphone manufacturers increased their shipments to Africa in the third quarter, Samsung recorded a sharp 30 percent decline, which reduced its market share to 18 percent, down from 26 percent in the same period last year. Meanwhile, Transsion, the maker of Tecno, Itel, and Infinix phones, maintained its lead in Africa, shipping 9.3 million smartphones to the continent and increasing its market share to 50 percent, up from 48 percent last year.